When Will Europe Ever Learn to Connect the Dots?
By Johannes de Jong, Managing Director at Sallux
Just before the Summer of 2025, I wrote the following as the introduction to the Sallux newsletter.
“In The Netherlands another hot debate over asylum took place just before Parliament closed for the summer recess. That was after the government had already fallen again over the same issue. Meanwhile a massive row ensued between Poland and Germany when Germany pushed back asylum seekers who in turn were pushed back by far-right vigilante activists from Poland back to Germany [1]. Ultimately Poland reinstated border controls with Germany which means that in all likelihood the Polish border police will block people from being pushed back into Poland [2]. The net effect being that people who flee through Belarus, the Baltics and Poland will end up in the border zone between Poland and Germany and (most likely) end up in Germany after all. What is clear also is that the border wall between Poland and Belarus does not make much difference in this regard.”
The European Commission (EC) meanwhile wants to continue with the policy of ‘Tunisia deals’ even while a very high-level EU delegation with that agenda was just thrown out of eastern Libya [3]. Instead of making the fight against extraction, exploitation and oppression (which cause people to become refugees and migrants) the highest priority in Africa, the proposed EC policies only deal with symptoms and consequences of these causes. Worse even, it takes real political effort to stop the EC from making deals that increase exploitation (such as the raw materials deal with Rwanda) [4]. Regardless of the mass murder of Nigerian Christians, the EU still has not even appointed the special envoy for freedom of religion and belief [5].
The French government published before the summer a report on the nefarious influence from the Muslim Brotherhood and how it sabotages integration and women’s rights in Europe [6]. In this report it became very clear that Turkey and Qatar are major drivers behind this undermining influence that drives people away from core fundamental rights and freedoms [7]. This comes as no surprise at a time in which the Erdoğan regime continues systematically to arrest national and local leaders of the main Turkish opposition (CHP) [8] and expel foreign Christians. As per usual, the Ministries of Foreign Affairs of EU Member States ignore this completely, regardless of what their Parliaments say [9]. The net effect is clear; people will flee Turkey as was already happening and Turkey and Qatar can continue to undermine European cohesion.
During the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, the majority of EU leaders and governments tried to stop Israel regardless of the oppressive nature of the Iranian regime [10]. President Macron said explicitly that there should be no regime change through military force even though no single Israeli or US soldier was on Iranian soil [11]. Effectively this meant he did not want the regime to be degraded to the point that the people in Iran could overthrow the regime. Instead, efforts were made to revive the nuclear deal with Iran [12]. This was pursued even though the Iranian regime through the IRGC militias in Syria was the main cause of the Syrian refugee crisis. The same militias also enabled the Houthis to terrorize European shipping supply lines. Any new EU–Iran agreement would throw a lifeline to a regime that is supporting Russia in its war against Ukraine. Moreover, the Iranian regime is one of the lifelines for the Venezuelan regime from where also many people flee to Europe. Meanwhile the European states that tried that approach came finally to the inevitable conclusion that they could not revive the nuclear deal with Iran and the snapback of sanctions went into effect [13]. However, the damage caused by the stream of money to Iran since 2015 has already been done.
In Syria, the EU and UK are completely ignoring the fact that people in the new HTS government are responsible for the mass-killing of Alawites and Druze[14,15]. The EU tries to reinforce the legitimacy of the HTS regime regardless of the extremists who populate it and of their unwillingness to end the attacks against Christians in Syria [16]. Even worse, EU Member State officials try to push North-East Syria to surrender its autonomy although it is there that the protection of real and implemented women’s rights and freedom of religion exists in one-third of Syria [17]. Simply because of the demands of the Erdogan regime (which is undermining integration in the EU), the EU and EU Member-State officials are expecting that free women surrender to oppression and a risk of ethnic/religious massacres. The threat is real that millions more will flee Syria.
In all these cases, the EU Member States’ foreign policy apparatuses and relevant EU institutions are contributing to the reasons that people leave their home and flee or migrate to Europe. Where something could be done to address these causes, it’s not happening. Humanitarian aid is no more than an attempt to cover up a disaster that has already happened. What should be done is to end the short-termist foreign policy that, in too many crucial cases, contributes to the causes of flight and migration. In many cases, the above-described policies are pursued without any democratic mandate. In fact, these policies are being implemented despite Parliaments demanding the opposite. Nevertheless, they are sold as ‘realism’ although the ultimate consequences of this ‘realism’ cost European taxpayers dearly.
Parliaments do not follow through. They repeatedly fail to enact consequences, for example, by cutting the budgets for the policymaking ends of Ministries of Foreign Affairs. I am not talking about foreign aid but about the budgets that pay the civil servants and diplomats. In too many cases, Parliaments are not sufficiently informed and often do not connect the dots between causes and consequences. The big picture, as described above, is not seen. Partisan ideology is also not helping. The left does not want to talk about extremist Islamism as a cause and the right prefers easy rhetoric and superficial measures over changing foreign policy. And let me be clear: the notion that fortified borders will stop everyone from coming is not achievable unless we put barbed wire over the beaches of most of the European Mediterranean countries. We cannot escape the need to consider the ultimate causes. Only when Europe learns the connection between policy cause and effect will Europe be able to do something lasting about immigration.
In the final analysis, three things stand out from the processes described above. First of all, the short-term economic approach is completely isolated from its effects in countries of concern and in Europe. It is based on an outdated idea of economic prosperity that equates it with short-term profits (mostly for shareholders). If a relational approach to the economy were the point of departure, the drive behind many foreign-policy decisions would change dramatically in a more logical direction, in which harmful effects would not be ignored. The second point that stands out is the fact that the relations between countries are reduced to ‘economic interest’ (which, in itself, is then reduced to ‘profit’). The broader picture (multiplexity) is ignored, and policies are seen in isolation even though the facts demonstrate how short-sighted this is. Many dimensions in the relation between what happens outside Europe and inside Europe (including the UK) are ignored, meaning there is no acknowledgement of multiplexity. Finally, in almost every case the equal human dignity of non-Europeans is ignored.
A relational understanding of human dignity is therefore the starting point to change this misguided foreign policy. As Desmond Tutu said: “My humanity is bound up in yours, for we can only be human together.”
The views and opinions expressed above are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the Jubilee Centre or its trustees.
[1] https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-tusk-tells-far-right-vigilantes-german-border-go-home/
[2] https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-impose-border-checks-with-germany-lithuania-donald-tusk/
[7] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgnnelvz0do. The report's authors, who visited 10 different regions of France and four other European countries, concluded that the Muslim Brotherhood was losing influence in the Middle East and North Africa, and so was targeting Europe, backed by money from Turkey and Qatar.”
[8] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgqzk31qyzo
[11] https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-france-regime-europe-iran-israel/
[14] https://www.hrw.org/report/2025/09/23/are-you-alawi/identity-based-killings-during-syrias-transition
[16] https://www.eunews.it/en/2025/03/13/eu-betting-blind-on-syrias-new-leadership/
[17] https://www.memri.org/reports/integration-trap-erasing-kurdish-autonomy-syrias-reconstruction
